Thursday, March 5, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:11 AM on Thursday, March 5th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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click to enlarge

The last two days have been characterized by overnight inventory being 100% net short and the market being weak enough to ignore that and selling off firmly from the open. This morning we are gapping up about 4.25. We’ll see soon if the overnight bulls have any confidence to hold and build upon gains.

Overnight inventory is net long but not 100% so.

Yesterday’s high was poor and is in need of repair. There was some decent excess on the low so for now I am assuming that this low is secure at least for the short term.

2/27 and 3/3 have almost identical settlements at the 2105 area. The ONH is at 2103.50. Perhaps hold off on directional trade longs unless that area is cleared?

With yesterday’s excess low it appears to me that people got a little overly short. While I am open to any scenario, my thinking for the morning session is that pullbacks could be buyable.

Stay fluid…..
-peter

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:54 AM on Wednesday, March 4th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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click to enlarge

Futures down about six with overnight inventory again almost 100% net short. Yesterday we got no inventory correction at all, maybe today. ONL has not taken out yesterday’s RTH low as of yet. Will probably be looking to fade this open especially as am noting that value was not out of range even though price moved a bit lower. Read More…

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:20 AM on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Late in the day yesterday, I was filling in for Brad on the Squawk and took a short up against R2 which was also a prior resistance point on the chart. I told listeners that the target would have to be 2011 and would happen overnight more than likely as we entered the short well after 3:30pm already. Note the circled area above which shows how much time was spent sitting right at 2011 last night before breaking lower much later this morning. This is the perfect illustration of how Points of Control are to be thought of as magnets that pull price and hold it there. Always use them as exit points, not starting points. Read More…

Monday, March 2 , 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:15 AM on Monday, March 2nd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

They say March comes in like a lion and out like a lamb. That may be true of the weather, but in the futures market it appears that it may play out quite opposite that. On this first day of trade, /ES is currently gapping down two ticks and as you can see from the graphic below, all overnight action remains firmly in balance, which is where we’ve been. Read More…

Friday, February 27, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:51 AM on Friday, February 27th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

A market full of only small opportunities as of late with ranges being rather tight. Note how the profile distributions show overlapping value with small value areas….

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Yesterday’s high was poor, carry forward if we get back there.

Overnight inventory is almost 100% net short. The TPO POC is pretty prominent at 2109.75. I would expect this level to be retested today. A failure to take out the ONL could set up that move.

Tempo has been slow and moves have been small in this market. Thus tamper down your expectations. Doesn’t mean don’t take the trade if the distance from A-B is only 2 handles, just means get out at the two handles target and move on to the next trade. The volatility is what it is currently. In the same way that we come into a market and assess whether we should trade early or trade later, we also have to ask ourselves are opportunities small or large currently. Whenever you are trading inside smaller value areas with a market that is in balance, the opportunities are generally going to be smaller.

Responsive trade against profile and technical references continues to work in this environment. Last day of the month so there could be some weirdness out there. Just worth mentioning.

Have a great day
peter

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:10 AM on Thursday, February 26th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

New all time highs yesterday but no advance in value. Value completely inside prior day. Balance? Tired? People getting longer and not getting paid? Setting up for liquidation break or strong rally higher? I honestly don’t know and I don’t need to right now to make money today. Close your eyes and repeat that sentence three times in your head. Think out loud, multiple scenarios every day, no bias. You’re not in control. The market gives signals and you take them. Be like water. It doesn’t say what shape it wants to be, the context defines it. If the pail is round, it’s round. If the box is square, it’s square.

The volume POC is actually lower than the prior day and the TPO POC is identical. Again, just information to carry forward.

Value area lows of last two sessions are very close to each other. A larger downward break could occur if there is some acceptance below this area. We are currently trading below.

There is pretty strong divergence between /NQ and /ES futures in the premarket. I don’t know why and don’t really care. Some four letter symbol maybe reported and is gapping way up. The reason never matters. Am just thinking ahead of time that the divergence could continue into the session. If so, it will add to my confidence if the market gives a responsive trade signal.

Overnight inventory is net long but not 100% so. There is no real gap to speak of on the /ES that is fadeable. Yesterday’s action was very choppy due to the fact that 95% of it was happening inside of the prior day’s VA.

Have a great day, and I’ll see you at 2pm on tastytrade…
-peter

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:09 AM on Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

New all time high yesterday with just a smidgeon of excess on top. I believe bulls are still in control and will remain so. Read More…

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:17 AM on Tuesday, February 24th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Very tight inside day yesterday with compacted value area that is contained within the upper distribution of Monday’s double distribution day. Carry forward as bullish. Read More…

Monday, February 23, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Monday, February 23rd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

-Overnight inventory 99% net short. Close enough where I would be looking for a move back up at some point today to balance that. Remember…doesn’t have to come right away. Friday’s high was poor so there could be more liquidation than what we’re getting in premarket that takes market lower and gets more short term traders short before there is a counter trend rally. Read More…

Friday, February 20, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:58 AM on Friday, February 20th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Three or five days of balance depending on how you look at it. I’m going to say three, with value areas completely unchanged. Something is going to happen soon. I don’t know which direction either but something and when it does get on board.

Overnight action is balanced and inside of yesterday’s RTH session.

Am noting that the last three settlement values are all within one tick of each other. Look at the red boxes in the graphic above. Wow. I would be thinking that if futures recover from this small gap down and trade above that level (let’s say 2096.00 to clear all three settlements) more aggressive traders could initiate longs with the anticipation that the balance will end today and the market will repair the poor highs. Just a thought. Opens and closes are very important levels that many don’t put enough weight on.

Yesterday’s POC at 2095.25 is rather prominent and as such has higher odds of being revisited in today’s trade. Look for early action to fail to get below the overnight low and then trade back through the open to initiate that trade.

Brad and I will probably take some calls today on ShadowTrader Uncovered on tastytrade so if there’s any burning questions you’ve been harboring on anything I discuss in this blog, feel free to call at 855-238-2789 between 2:30 and 3pm EST.

Have a great day,
peter