Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:02 AM on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

We’ve been one timeframing for six sessions now. Market “should” take a break, but doesn’t have to. Be careful of small liquidation breaks which tend to get people short and run back over. We’ve seen this over the last few sessions.

Overnight inventory is balanced to net short. The ONH did not get anywhere near the RTH high.

Yesterday’s high was poor, indicating that the rally is probably not over.

The volume POC did not migrate higher yesterday but remained in the middle of the range, however, note that the TPO POC is high in the range.

Yesterday’s structure was poor, but it’s only one data point.

Yesterday’s RTH low is at a key level as it is the prior day’s high and was also a high on 4/9 and 4/10. Any more meaningful downside action will find acceptance below this level.

Have a great day,
peter

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Tuesday, April 22nd, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–Value continues to build higher daily with no overlap indicating that trend is strong.

–The number of days up in a row matters but don’t always assume large correction. Think in terms of liquidation breaks. To where would they correct to? Too many people have bearish notions and expect the market to completely fall apart. The current tone doesn’t suggest that to me. If anything it’s more of a neutral tone as we are spending time within the middle of the dominant channel and are not at extremes at all.

–The TPO POC at 1862.75 is relatively prominent and could be a target to the downside today.

–Yesterday’s high was poor, so expect repair. If not today then at some point.

–Overnight inventory is net long but not overly so.

Have a great day,
peter

Monday, April 21, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:01 AM on Monday, April 21st, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

After four sessions up, futures have stalled and failed to take out Thursday’s high thus far in the premarket which is indicating a flat open as of now.

ONL is just one tic below the POC.

Overnight inventory is about 99% net long, but futures are trading back at the settlement right now. Given the amount the market has moved up last week, I would think that if any rebalance occurs, a rotation to VAH could be in the cards. Internals will of course tell the tale. Watch where early trade develops in relation to the POC.

Have a great day,
peter

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:39 AM on Thursday, April 17th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am away from my desk this week and as such am not writing any detailed blog posts. We’re posting snapshots of the profile only for this week. Regular blog commentary will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014.**

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:34 AM on Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am away from my desk this week and as such am not writing any detailed blog posts. We’re posting snapshots of the profile only for this week. Regular blog commentary will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014.**

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:50 AM on Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am away from my desk this week and as such am not writing any detailed blog posts. We’re posting snapshots of the profile only for this week. Regular blog commentary will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014.**

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Monday, April 14, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:51 AM on Monday, April 14th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**Note, I will be away from my desk all of next week. As such am posting this post early without a premarket snapshot. Brad will be posting premarket snapshots of the blog for me for the next three trading days, however there will be no accompanying commentary. Friday the 18th is a market holiday and there will be no blog. Regular commentary and publication will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014. I wish you all a great trading week.**

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Click to enlarge

Friday, April 11, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Friday, April 11th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Morning futures action has prices below a short term trendline in the SPX cash.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

There is downside clearance now in the chart above to the 1795 area which is the lower end of that channel.

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Yesterday’s distribution was split into a few different parts. Rather thin and elongated but we did get a POC migration to the low end. There are two single prints at 1832.75 and the ONH is at 1832.00. Coincidence, I think not. Any short covering rally would have to clear that level to get in gear.

Path of least resistance technically is definitely down. Don’t blindly assume that but use it as a starting point.

Have a great day,
peter

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:11 AM on Thursday, April 10th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday saw the /ES advance strongly at 2pm EST on the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting. These moves are often reversed the following day, so today will be very key for the bulls to see if they can hold the footing they established yesterday by taking prices back up into the midpoint of the recent trading range of roughly 1850 – 1900.

Yesterday’s profile is split into two distributions. As always, the measure of strength or weakness will be which of the two we find acceptance in, either the upper or the lower.

The ONL at 1857.50 is not really at any reference and was printed right in the middle of the single prints that separate the two distributions. Spikes like that are supportive or resistant at their extremes but not usually in the middle. Thus watch 1855 and 1859.50 today.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:56 AM on Wednesday, April 9th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–Gap up of about 5 as of this writing with overnight inventory about 90% net long.

1845.75 POC is prominent and could get retest.

–Overnight action has taken out yesterday’s RTH high, but remember that at the end of the day it will be all about value and where it ends up.

–Value area nestled inside prior day’s value area, indicating balance in this area. Will prices move up and out, down and out, or remain same?

–Yesterday’s intraday advance was stopped at the VAH almost to the tic, so the profile references are still working and should be used.

Have a great day,
peter