Market Profile Blog – Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:38 AM on Tuesday, March 31st, 2015

Good Morning!

Value areas and POC figures for /ESM5 and /NQM5 are posted free every morning HERE.

** Peter is out this week on vacation. He will not be writing daily commentary this week. We will post a snapshot of the profile every morning as a courtesy to our loyal readers. Regular commentary will resume Monday, April 6th. **

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Market Profile Blog – Monday March 30, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:36 AM on Monday, March 30th, 2015

/>Good Morning!

Value areas and POC figures for /ESM5 and /NQM5 are posted free every morning HERE.

** Peter is out this week on vacation. He will not be writing daily commentary this week. We will post a snapshot of the profile every morning as a courtesy to our loyal readers. Regular commentary will resume Monday, April 6th. **

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Friday, March 27, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:13 AM on Friday, March 27th, 2015

Good Morning!

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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Yesterday I talked a lot about the 2052.25 area where there was a confluence of a VAL, daily low, and a lot of overnight value. The market was able to pierce this level yesterday but not close above it. Value was not able to get deeper into the prior day’s value area either. Read More…

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:34 AM on Thursday, March 26th, 2015

Good Morning!

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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The basing late in the afternoon while we were on tastytrade looked like traders were getting overly short and that if we had closed on that poor low we would probably gap up today. As we know, late day sellers in the final half hour of trade took the market much lower. On top of this action we are now gapping down about 14 as of this writing. Gap rules are in play.

Overnight inventory is quite short but not 100% so.

The ONL is at 2033.25 and is 3 ticks above the 3/13 low. I’m not showing that chart but you can easily look that up yourselves. It was the low of the recent down move. This is a very key area today. Holding it gives bulls some chance that this market will continue higher in the near term. Losing it opens us up to the possibility of testing supports in the high 1900′s.

On the upside, yesterday’s low, the VAL, and a whole lotta balance in the overnight session all converge at 2052.25 area give or take a tick here and there. This will be a key resistance in today’s session if a gap fill move got underway. Crossing it would be a buy signal in and of itself as there is obviously a lot of sticky-ness to that level.

As the ONL is at a key support level on a larger timeframe (daily), the odds of a fade increase if we cannot take out the overnight low in early trade. I believe this to be true because there will be dip buyers coming in on top of those covering overnight shorts. Remember that everyone has access to the charts and sees the same levels.

Have a wonderful day…..
Just as a heads up, there will be no blog commentary all next week as I will be out of town. Brad will post the profile graphic as a courtesy to everyone. I wish everyone massive profits and the best week of their lives while I’m away…. The markets are closed for Good Friday next week.

-peter

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:17 AM on Wednesday, March 25th, 2015

Good Morning!

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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Yesterday’s afternoon selling was more of a liquidation break to me than a stronger combination of new money sellers and long liquidation. Think of it as old business and new business put together. New business won’t wait until the afternoon to sell a market.

The profile and value elongated to the downside yesterday but the wider TPO’s were at the top and there was no migration of volume POC downward either.

Overnight inventory is very balanced this morning so the trade is probably later rather than earlier.

Overnight high broke back up into value area by just two ticks. I’m noting that. The overnight low took out the RTH low by a few ticks and has rallied back into range. I’m noting that too. What do I make of all this? That I really don’t know what the early trade will be so I’m not going to push it, I’m going to let things develop and let the market tell me later.

Have a great day,
peter

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:02 AM on Tuesday, March 24th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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I’ve purposely left on yesterday’s overnight session to better illustrate all the balance and responsive action of the sessions. Yesterday’s one tick break of the prior high is not enough to consider that as repair so I believe we have back to back poor highs now.

Note how overnight high today is right up against VAL to the tick. Markets that are in balance respect profile and technical references. Markets that are initiating new activity into new price areas break through these levels.

Overnight low broke down below the two day range but did not find any new sellers to join in and note how current action is up 3.75 and well back into range. That is information to carry forward into today’s session.

The TPO POC at 2102.75 is very prominent and as such could be in play on a breach of the ONH. On strength I would be targeting that level. Given that the overnight action was not able to hold two day lows, I am coming in to this session thinking about a scenario that touches that POC. Some early weakness that is not able to get through the settlement (2095.25) to the downside, perhaps?

Think about all possible points that could create turns. That’s all there is. None of this is a guessing game and once the closing bell rings, it all looks so clear. There are very few instances where you really have to scratch your head and wonder once the market is closed, right? The simple reason why it’s not so clear while it’s happening is because we get too focused on price. Pull back, get away from the DOM, keep your eyes on the internals. It’s there right in front of us…….

Have a great day
peter

Monday, March 23, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Monday, March 23rd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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Completely balanced overnight inventory with overnight range all inside of Friday’s range. Read More…

Friday, March 20, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:01 AM on Friday, March 20th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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I’ve purposely cut of part of the Wednesday distribution so we could see this morning’s overnight distribution more clearly. I think the best “tell” from yesterday’s action was that we traded well into Thursday’s single prints but did not have any strong liquidation break within that area that was created by panic/momentum buyers. Halfback (50% retracement from high to low) also held yesterday which should be carried forward as a sign of strength.

Futures are gapping up about 10 right now. The overnight inventory situation is net long but there is plenty of action below yesterday’s settlement as well. Given yesterday’s action it feels to me like people are still a little short out there. Am not sure if there is a fade situation out there as of now. We are trading very close to the overnight high. Context is king. It’s when we fight that that we have frustrating days. When we’re in sync with it, things just flow.

2082.50 is a relatively prominent POC today that could be in play on any weakness.

Have a great day,
peter

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:52 AM on Thursday, March 19th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

Thanks to everyone who attended my 2 hour WindoTrader extravaganza yesterday. I’m pretty hoarse right now, thanks for listening to my rambling for so long! It is being archived and will be ready tomorrow. To those of you who complained that you didn’t receive any email from GoToMeeting, please check your spam or promotions folders. They definitely sent one immediately upon you registering, you just didn’t receive it.

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–Yesterday’s monster truck rally at the FOMC left a huge spike in the profile. All you need to know is that the single prints end at 2083.25. That’s the downside support. A loss of that level could easily bring futures crashing back as there is little support in the spike.

–Halfback at 2076.00 is also an interesting reference that could be in play….

–Overnight inventory is very balanced and overnight trade was not able to take out yesterday’s RTH high at this time.

–While Fed induced moves are always in a class of their own, often defying market profile principles, the fact remains that value is clearly much, much lower and there was no migration of the POC anywhere near the upper part of the range. So the structure is the type that can reverse itself quickly. I’m not predicting that specifically, just pointing it out. As I was discussing yesterday in the webinar, your job as an intraday /ES trader is to have multiple scenarios in mind before the bell but not be too rigid expecting that one of them is the one that is going to happen. Anything can happen. Close your eyes and repeat that 5 times slowly. Go ahead, do it now, I’ll wait….

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:05 AM on Wednesday, March 18th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

I’m doing a webinar with WindoTrader on Wednesday, March 18th at 4:30pm EST. This will not be a software demo but rather an educational presentation showing the techniques I employ daily to trade /ES using market profile references together with market internals and charts to enter and exit trades. It’s free and you can register at this link: HERE.

Very choppy, balancing type of day yesterday with value overlapping to down. Futures gapping down around 7 currently ahead of FOMC announcement happening at 2pm EST. To that end, don’t expect much today especially after lunch as the market tends to be very sideways into the announcement. I tend to sit out these days completely as the action can be erratic.

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Overall very balanced profile yesterday.

Overnight inventory is relatively balanced.

We are currently opening outside of value but within yesterday’s range. So think of that as slightly out of balance.

Yesterday’s action was characterized by a lot of moves back and forth through the open and also moving back and forth in and out of value from the downside. These are important clues to note to know when to be responsive and when to be initiating. That is a key concept that I’ll be discussing in my WindoTrader webinar this afternoon. The sign up link is above if you’re interested in joining me.

Have a great day
peter