Thursday, April 17, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:39 AM on Thursday, April 17th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am away from my desk this week and as such am not writing any detailed blog posts. We’re posting snapshots of the profile only for this week. Regular blog commentary will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014.**

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Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:34 AM on Wednesday, April 16th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am away from my desk this week and as such am not writing any detailed blog posts. We’re posting snapshots of the profile only for this week. Regular blog commentary will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014.**

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:50 AM on Tuesday, April 15th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am away from my desk this week and as such am not writing any detailed blog posts. We’re posting snapshots of the profile only for this week. Regular blog commentary will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014.**

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Monday, April 14, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:51 AM on Monday, April 14th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

**Note, I will be away from my desk all of next week. As such am posting this post early without a premarket snapshot. Brad will be posting premarket snapshots of the blog for me for the next three trading days, however there will be no accompanying commentary. Friday the 18th is a market holiday and there will be no blog. Regular commentary and publication will resume on Monday, April 21, 2014. I wish you all a great trading week.**

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Click to enlarge

Friday, April 11, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Friday, April 11th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Morning futures action has prices below a short term trendline in the SPX cash.

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There is downside clearance now in the chart above to the 1795 area which is the lower end of that channel.

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Yesterday’s distribution was split into a few different parts. Rather thin and elongated but we did get a POC migration to the low end. There are two single prints at 1832.75 and the ONH is at 1832.00. Coincidence, I think not. Any short covering rally would have to clear that level to get in gear.

Path of least resistance technically is definitely down. Don’t blindly assume that but use it as a starting point.

Have a great day,
peter

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:11 AM on Thursday, April 10th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

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click to enlarge

Yesterday saw the /ES advance strongly at 2pm EST on the release of the FOMC minutes from the last meeting. These moves are often reversed the following day, so today will be very key for the bulls to see if they can hold the footing they established yesterday by taking prices back up into the midpoint of the recent trading range of roughly 1850 – 1900.

Yesterday’s profile is split into two distributions. As always, the measure of strength or weakness will be which of the two we find acceptance in, either the upper or the lower.

The ONL at 1857.50 is not really at any reference and was printed right in the middle of the single prints that separate the two distributions. Spikes like that are supportive or resistant at their extremes but not usually in the middle. Thus watch 1855 and 1859.50 today.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:56 AM on Wednesday, April 9th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

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–Gap up of about 5 as of this writing with overnight inventory about 90% net long.

1845.75 POC is prominent and could get retest.

–Overnight action has taken out yesterday’s RTH high, but remember that at the end of the day it will be all about value and where it ends up.

–Value area nestled inside prior day’s value area, indicating balance in this area. Will prices move up and out, down and out, or remain same?

–Yesterday’s intraday advance was stopped at the VAH almost to the tic, so the profile references are still working and should be used.

Have a great day,
peter

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:38 AM on Tuesday, April 8th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

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Overnight inventory is very balanced with the overnight range making a new low. For the time being, I’m viewing that as bearish. Note how the midpoint of the overnight session is right at yesterday’s POC which migrated lower with price towards the low end of yesterday’s range.

Yesterday’s low is rather poor and came to within two tics of the 3/27 low. That is the key downside reference at 1834.00 – 1834.50.

Unchanged value keeps the bears in control of the ball here.

Have a great day,
peter

April 7, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:09 AM on Monday, April 7th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

As I was discussing in the ShadowTrader Video Weekly yesterday, even though Friday’s distribution was very elongated with single prints throughout indicting panic selling, I do believe that due to the staggering relative weakness in the Nasdaq charts that there may be no “snapback” rally this time. Poor structure is however poor structure and people did probably get themselves overly short on Friday.

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1850.25 is the overnight low and needs to be tested early in order for there not to be a lot of short covering coming in. Remember that it’s relatively rare for large expansions of range to be followed by more expansion the next session. In plain English that means that big body candles usually don’t have more big bodies right after. The next day usually breaks the prior day’s low but does not close really weak. In that vein, there may be opportunity for two sided trade today. Look to the left of current price (green line) in the graphic above and see if that makes sense to you…

If you haven’t seen yesterday’s video, it has some downside targets for the SPX in it that may be of interest to you.

Have a great day,
peter

April 4, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:09 AM on Friday, April 4th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH4 and /NQH4 are posted free every morning HERE.

I don’t know or care what the NFP number was this morning, because it should be clear to everyone by now that ALL news is good news in this environment.

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Click to Enlarge

–Value close to equal last two sessions which is bullish considering holding at top of range.

–Overnight inventory is basically 100% net long. I’ve been giving the idea for a number of mornings for an early liquidation break but that trade has not set up much. Yesterday’s POC is pretty prominent so if there was an early correction, I’d be thinking 1881.00 as a target.

We’re in clear air so to speak and the resistance will come in at either of the upper two trendlines in the picture below.

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I’m seeing those two lines at 1912 and 1925 currently in the cash market.

Have a great day,
peter