Tuesday, September 30, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:59 AM on Tuesday, September 30th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–Value remains unchanged since Thursday’s selloff. Trade value not price. Price leads value but if value doesn’t catch up, then price is essentially unfair.

–Overnight inventory is net long and the TPO POC is at 1969 and wide enough to make me think it could be revisited.

–Value unchanged maintains the current bias with odds favoring lower prices over time. Value building higher can negate that.

–I’ve drawn a line across the lows where there is support to the downside. I believe all of these lows are still pretty poor and would expect acceleration to the downside if that line is breached.

–Note that there has been a change in tone recently which is the most important thing to know, really. The distance of the rallies seems to be diminishing and once the short covering ends, sellers seem to come back quickly. I think we would have to break trend in order for that to abate.

–I still like responsive trades in this environment, especially those that are fading up moves.

Last trading day of the month, could be some repositioning by larger players today and tomorrow. Keep that in mind.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Monday, September 29, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:20 AM on Monday, September 29th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

My comments in my weekend video were biased towards the bearish side and at the open here it appears that for now that was the correct stance as we are about to open down 19 points in the /ES.

Now as for how to play today, let’s post the profile graphic and then get into it…. Read More…

Friday, September 26, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:13 AM on Friday, September 26th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday’s early trade was more of a liquidation break due to the large spike moving down off the open. There was however clear acceptance at lower prices once things settled into a rhythm. I believe some longer term sellers came out of the woodwork yesterday as we saw internal readings that were far more bearish than the norm (Breadth 17:1 negative, etc).

Overnight action is all balanced and concentrated within yesterday’s value area which to me is bearish because action was not able to move our of the VA and into the spike. The only thing that would bring in a short covering rally would be a move above the VA where the profile gets very thin.

There were 30 points difference between yesterdays’ POC and the prior day’s. I don’t think that has too much import, it’s just a rare phenomenon that we don’t see very often.

Value overlapping to down keeps things bearish and the path of least resistance lower to the 1920 area in the cash where we see the dominant ascending trendline (SPX).

Yesterday’s low was poor and is in need of repair.

If the tone has changed, remember to change your mind.

Market profile Wisdom of the Day
Wait for opportunities to trade with trend.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:18 AM on Thursday, September 25th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Short covering reversal yesterday. The triple distribution shows that shorts panicked and covered quickly. I am noting that the POC was all the way at the top of the range and also that there was acceptance in that area which has questioning any bearish stance. Overall think of the market as neutral here for now as the retracement upwards yesterday put many of the majors right back into range. Check out daily charts of DIA and QQQ especially before the bell today and it may just change your perspective. Read More…

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 12:41 PM on Monday, September 22nd, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–There was excess on the low of yesterday’s RTH distribution. Overnight low went lower than that low. I am noting that as slightly more bearish. Often when the ONL is higher than the RTH low we have better odds of an early rally. Also, with yesterday’s tail and close off the lows, you would think traders are overly short but if so, why the move even lower in the overnight session and very little drive into yesterdays value thus far? Could be balance in this area and lower later? Points to ponder…. Read More…

Friday, September 19, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:20 AM on Friday, September 19th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–Overnight inventory is 100% net long. The 2014.50 ONH is the upside reference. Yesterday’s POC is prominent and as we didn’t revisit the POC yesterday, I would say odds increase that we do today. Play fades on failure to take out the ONH to a 2001.50 target. Read More…

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:57 AM on Thursday, September 18th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday’s move found acceptance in the upper of the two previous day’s distributions. That is bullish in the short term. Read More…

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:20 AM on Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

As discussed in yesterday’s post there was good chance of a short covering rally and we got it yesterday in a very big way. Yesterday’s tall profile was rather stretchy and separated into two distributions. This is indicative of shorter term players covering shorts and playing momentum in an “I gotta have it NOW” type of manner. The larger players would sit on the bid and let prices come in a bit and buy. Be that as it may it doesn’t take away any of the weight of the reversal unless we were to see price action today find acceptance in the lower of the two distributions. It’s more of a piece of information to carry forward if and when price comes back down through yesterday’s range. A double distribution is not as solid of a structure as a single distribution. Read More…

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:13 AM on Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

A lower low yesterday with a very small balanced profile. When the range and value area is small don’t expect ranges to hold. That would be the time when responsive trade is NOT the way to go. A good trade today would possibly be a test of an extreme and then a break for a directional move. Read More…

Monday, September 15, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:00 AM on Monday, September 15th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

My comments on the profile in my Sunday videos are usually pretty comprehensive, thus I like to repost the video in the blog on Monday mornings. The market profile part starts at 01:35. Read More…