Thursday, August 21, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:37 AM on Thursday, August 21st, 2014

Good Morning

**I’m on vacation until Wednesday, August 27th and as such will not be writing daily commentary in the blog. Brad will be posting the current profile graphic daily as a courtesy to my loyal readers. See you soon…….**

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
Day timeframe traders are in control if you see them continually selling the highs or buying the lows.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:38 AM on Wednesday, August 20th, 2014

Good Morning

**I’m on vacation until Wednesday, August 27th and as such will not be writing daily commentary in the blog. Brad will be posting the current profile graphic daily as a courtesy to my loyal readers. See you soon…….**

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
In order to do a short directional or “go with” trade, minimum area should be below prior day’s close. Look for longs above unchanged and shorts below unchanged.

Have a profitable day,
peter

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:58 AM on Tuesday, August 19th, 2014

Good Morning

**I’m on vacation until Wednesday, August 27th and as such will not be writing daily commentary in the blog. Brad will be posting the current profile graphic daily as a courtesy to my loyal readers. See you soon…….**

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
How long should one carry forward information of untested areas in their narrative? Until they’ve been revisited.

Have a nice day,
peter

Monday, August 18, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:36 AM on Monday, August 18th, 2014

Good Morning

**I’m on vacation until Wednesday, August 27th and as such will not be writing daily commentary in the blog. Brad will be posting the current profile graphic daily as a courtesy to my loyal readers. See you soon…….**

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
Poor lows with no excess (buying tail) means market is overly short.

Have a great day,
peter

Friday, August 15, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:39 AM on Friday, August 15th, 2014

Good Morning

**I’m on vacation until Wednesday, August 27th and as such will not be writing daily commentary in the blog. Brad will be posting the current profile graphic daily as a courtesy to my loyal readers. See you soon…….**

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
Poor highs with no excess (selling tail) means the market is overly long.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:33 AM on Thursday, August 14th, 2014

Good Morning

**I’m on vacation until Wednesday, August 27th and as such will not be writing daily commentary in the blog. Brad will be posting the current profile graphic daily as a courtesy to my loyal readers. See you soon…….**

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
The first area that a strong opposing force needs to take out is the POC. New buyers and sellers (the “other” timeframe, which is more sustainable) really only step in there.

Have a nice day,
peter

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Posted by baugunas at 8:52 AM on Wednesday, August 13th, 2014

Good Morning

**This will be the last day of commentary in the blog until Wednesday, August 27th. Brad will be posting the profile graphic as a courtesy to my readers while I’m away.**

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge.

–Decent sized gap of 6.75 as of this writing with overnight inventory 100% net long.

–The overnight high was right to the high of 8/11 to the tick. This is the obvious upside reference. A retest of this area, especially after an initial liquidation break to balance overnight inventory could be a buy point for a directional trade.

–The TPO POC at 1929.00 is rather prominent and should be noted.

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
Change takes place when the market stops one-timeframing. Sometimes, however, a larger move may take 1-2 days to get going.

Have a great day,
peter

Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:08 AM on Tuesday, August 12th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

–Value broke away to the upside for the first time in a number of sessions yesterday.

–Overnight inventory is 100% net long again today however we are not gapping up at all with futures currently down 0.25 as of this writing.

–All of the overnight inventory is balanced within yesterday’s range.

–There is a gap to fill below us down to 1928.25 (8/8′s high), or to 1923.50 (8/8′s settlement) depending on which school you belong to. Both are important.

–On the upside, I am focusing on the chart below. There is a confluence of 20 and 50 ma’s above along with a descending trendline.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

**I will be on vacation from 8/14 to 8/26. The market profile graphic and the “wisdom of the day” will be posted but I will not be writing any commentary during this time.**

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
Always mark off the prior day’s close (4:15pm EST) so you have an “unchanged” line on your charts and note it as a reference point to see if the market is trading above or below it, especially when the market is trading near it.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

August 11, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:09 AM on Monday, August 11th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–Almost double digit gap on follow through to Friday’s reversal. Overnight inventory is 100% net long (I know there’s one tick below the settlement, but that’s meaningless). With gap up 9.75 right now it’s right at the sweet spot to fade it or pass as the gap could be too large. I would expect at least some filling today (fade move) because we closed quite strong on Friday. If ONH, currently at 1935.50, cannot get taken out then play the fade move. Target would be VAH at 1928.25 and then POC at 1922.25.

–Friday was a double distribution, I’ve boxed off the two of them. Same story as usual. Build value in upper one is more bullish than lower one. Endpoints of single prints separating the two could be support points.

–Overall, even with Friday’s bullishness, value still has not changed from the six sessions of weakness. Bulls need to see value establish clearly higher today.

–The most important thing to note is that volatility is increasing. Moves are larger, as such your stops and targets need to be larger. Don’t be afraid to go for the $5+ move, this is the environment that it’s going to happen in. This is a blessing and a curse at the same time but more of a blessing. It’s just harder for newer traders to have those wider stops. Consider taking half your normal size at an inflection point and then if there is a retracement, hold through it and then put on balance of position as price crosses back through your original entry point.

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
When initial moves pullback halfway, check to see if that 50% retracement holds or not. Dalton refers to this as “half back” but it’s nothing more than a 50% fibonacci retracement which we know from experience works quite often.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Friday, August 8, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:03 AM on Friday, August 8th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Huge swoon overnight in the futures took /ES about 15 handles below yesterday’s settlement only to rally back and be gapping up 4.50 as of this writing.

Overnight inventory is net short but not hugely so as there has been plenty of action above the settlement now.

The five sessions have all been characterized by overlapping to down value. There could easily be a rally today as none of these shorts have really gotten paid. Beyond that there is the “don’t go home long over the weekend” mentality which I am prone to think opposite of. The herd is usually wrong and it’s never that obvious. If the market followed common sense principles the game would be easy.

Yesterday’s session formed a double distribution. As always, watch the end points of the single prints as possible turns.

Value building higher today changes the tone a bit, overlapping to down or even just overlapping keeps things status quo which is still bearish.

**Brad is off during the afternoon session today and as such I’ll be handling the squawkbox duties from 1:30pm onward**

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
The “innovator” or “early adopter” might be an individual or even a slightly larger trader, but rarely an institution.

Have a nice day,
peter