Friday, October 24, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Friday, October 24th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–There is some excess on yesterday’s high. Two TPO’s wide but it has the appearance of a completed auction. That being said, the profile is rather balanced on both sides and symmetrical.

–Overnight inventory is almost all net short.

–The volume POC and TPO POC’s are some distance away from each other today. Pay attention to both. The number that you will get from Brad in the morning will always be the volume POC. The TPO POC is at 1948.50.

–As always trade value not price. I believe the market is still in need of balance after such a large run in one direction. Today would be a good day to practice thinking “Where will value develop by the end of the day?”.

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
Gap fills are very significant. They are not always to the penny. Get ahead of it….organize data better than the next person.

Have a great day,
Peter

**PS I’ll be handling SquawkBox duties for Brad this afternoon at 1:30 to close**

Thursday, October 23, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:43 AM on Thursday, October 23rd, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Let’s start with an /ES daily chart……. Read More…

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:18 AM on Wednesday, October 22nd, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The profiles are so stretched out that I can’t snapshot any more than yesterday’s action. Very momentum, chasing, short covering type of action recently. Read More…

Tuesday, October 21, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:00 AM on Tuesday, October 21st, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Goldilocks gap of +8.25 this morning. A sweet spot for a good fade if the early trade cannot take out the ONH. Overnight inventory is very close to 100% net long which sets the whole thing up perfectly. Gap rules apply.

Yesterday’s late day advance pulled price far up to the upper end of the distribution, closing it at the tip top without value expanding all the way to that area. I think all signs point to a playable fade this morning with the usual targets. Go for yesterday’s close first, then VAH, then POC.

Valuie was overlapping to higher yesterday which I see as not bearish but not overly bullish. The prior RTH session had breakaway value as an opening gap held. I would have expected an intrinsically stronger market to establish value more clearly higher yesterday. Duly noted and carried forward.

Of course with all the talk of fading, let’s not every forget other scenarios which could just as easily be gap and hold, gap and go, or (everyone’s favorite) the slow trickle downwards about 3 handles and then rally. The important thing is to not think you “know” before the bell rings and even more importantly not trying to fit what you think you know on top of a market that has completely other ideas. As always, internals shall light the way.

Market Profile Wisdom of the Day
Impulse trading is what kills most traders. Price is simply an advertising mechanism that stimulates our impulses to do something. Just trading based on a single feeling of greed/fear/price restricts us and can completely block us from the more powerful concepts such as excess, balance, value, and timeframes which are the real drivers of the market.

Have a great day,
peter

Monday, October 20, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:07 AM on Monday, October 20th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

–Small gap down this morning with /NQ’s showing a little relative strength to the /ES. Read More…

Friday, October 17, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:14 AM on Friday, October 17th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Of course I had no idea we would be gapping +25 at open but that’s irrelevant. What is important is to be always aware of the tone of what the market is doing. Every day has a particular color to it. Either panicky, hard and fast, slow and plodding, etc. Just being aware of this tone is often times more important than technicals or profile or anything else. Read More…

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Thursday, October 16th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Relentless is the only word I can think of to describe this selling. Yesterday we came within a hair of a 10% correction from the high, bounced about 40 /ES as expected and we’re currently down 24 in the overnight. Read More…

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:12 AM on Wednesday, October 15th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–Gap down is extremely large at $25 handles currently. Gap rules apply, the most important of which is that double digit large gaps are hard to trade so trade later rather than earlier. Read More…

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:07 AM on Tuesday, October 14th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Short in the hole again, but this time following through to upside as one would expect when price closes far away from value. Yesterday’s late day action was spiky and indicative of panic selling. Those are usually retraced back up quickly as we are seeing now with a double digit gap upwards. Read More…

Monday, October 13, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:12 AM on Monday, October 13th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

We had a classic “short in the hole” setup on Friday afternoon which I tried unsuccessfully to buy between 4 and 4:15pm EST. Trade continued lower off of Sunday’s open before reversing around midnight to start rebalancing all that short inventory. Short in the hole is when traders sell relentlessly away from value and you have a settlement far away from the POC on single prints. Read More…