Friday, February 27, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:51 AM on Friday, February 27th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

A market full of only small opportunities as of late with ranges being rather tight. Note how the profile distributions show overlapping value with small value areas….

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Yesterday’s high was poor, carry forward if we get back there.

Overnight inventory is almost 100% net short. The TPO POC is pretty prominent at 2109.75. I would expect this level to be retested today. A failure to take out the ONL could set up that move.

Tempo has been slow and moves have been small in this market. Thus tamper down your expectations. Doesn’t mean don’t take the trade if the distance from A-B is only 2 handles, just means get out at the two handles target and move on to the next trade. The volatility is what it is currently. In the same way that we come into a market and assess whether we should trade early or trade later, we also have to ask ourselves are opportunities small or large currently. Whenever you are trading inside smaller value areas with a market that is in balance, the opportunities are generally going to be smaller.

Responsive trade against profile and technical references continues to work in this environment. Last day of the month so there could be some weirdness out there. Just worth mentioning.

Have a great day
peter

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:10 AM on Thursday, February 26th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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New all time highs yesterday but no advance in value. Value completely inside prior day. Balance? Tired? People getting longer and not getting paid? Setting up for liquidation break or strong rally higher? I honestly don’t know and I don’t need to right now to make money today. Close your eyes and repeat that sentence three times in your head. Think out loud, multiple scenarios every day, no bias. You’re not in control. The market gives signals and you take them. Be like water. It doesn’t say what shape it wants to be, the context defines it. If the pail is round, it’s round. If the box is square, it’s square.

The volume POC is actually lower than the prior day and the TPO POC is identical. Again, just information to carry forward.

Value area lows of last two sessions are very close to each other. A larger downward break could occur if there is some acceptance below this area. We are currently trading below.

There is pretty strong divergence between /NQ and /ES futures in the premarket. I don’t know why and don’t really care. Some four letter symbol maybe reported and is gapping way up. The reason never matters. Am just thinking ahead of time that the divergence could continue into the session. If so, it will add to my confidence if the market gives a responsive trade signal.

Overnight inventory is net long but not 100% so. There is no real gap to speak of on the /ES that is fadeable. Yesterday’s action was very choppy due to the fact that 95% of it was happening inside of the prior day’s VA.

Have a great day, and I’ll see you at 2pm on tastytrade…
-peter

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:09 AM on Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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New all time high yesterday with just a smidgeon of excess on top. I believe bulls are still in control and will remain so. Read More…

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:17 AM on Tuesday, February 24th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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Very tight inside day yesterday with compacted value area that is contained within the upper distribution of Monday’s double distribution day. Carry forward as bullish. Read More…

Monday, February 23, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:06 AM on Monday, February 23rd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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-Overnight inventory 99% net short. Close enough where I would be looking for a move back up at some point today to balance that. Remember…doesn’t have to come right away. Friday’s high was poor so there could be more liquidation than what we’re getting in premarket that takes market lower and gets more short term traders short before there is a counter trend rally. Read More…

Friday, February 20, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:58 AM on Friday, February 20th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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Three or five days of balance depending on how you look at it. I’m going to say three, with value areas completely unchanged. Something is going to happen soon. I don’t know which direction either but something and when it does get on board.

Overnight action is balanced and inside of yesterday’s RTH session.

Am noting that the last three settlement values are all within one tick of each other. Look at the red boxes in the graphic above. Wow. I would be thinking that if futures recover from this small gap down and trade above that level (let’s say 2096.00 to clear all three settlements) more aggressive traders could initiate longs with the anticipation that the balance will end today and the market will repair the poor highs. Just a thought. Opens and closes are very important levels that many don’t put enough weight on.

Yesterday’s POC at 2095.25 is rather prominent and as such has higher odds of being revisited in today’s trade. Look for early action to fail to get below the overnight low and then trade back through the open to initiate that trade.

Brad and I will probably take some calls today on ShadowTrader Uncovered on tastytrade so if there’s any burning questions you’ve been harboring on anything I discuss in this blog, feel free to call at 855-238-2789 between 2:30 and 3pm EST.

Have a great day,
peter

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:57 AM on Thursday, February 19th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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Balancing, inside day yesterday with compacted value area. Look for market to move outside of this range soon. Read More…

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:19 AM on Wednesday, February 18th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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–Value broke away just a little yesterday in rather forced action to the upside. While we are just breaking out to new all time highs recently, I keep myself aware of the tempo and feel of prior days to be alert for possible liquidation breaks that I can profit from. Read More…

Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:11 AM on Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

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There was a shortened session on Monday, so as always Value areas and Pivots that are in the newsletter above are always calculated off of Friday’s closing numbers. We ignore the shortened sessions. Read More…

Friday, February 13, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:04 AM on Friday, February 13th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESH5 and /NQH5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

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Futures breaking to new all time highs this morning. Let’s see where the cash market opens. I generally will not play a breakout or any longer term technical setup off the futures chart but rather that of the SPX.

I caution anyone buying the breakout only due to the “coming up from the bottom” scenario which usually results in a small pullback or false breakout on the first attempt. When a market has gone straight up from the bottom of a range to the top, there’s usually some testing of the top before an actual break. Dalton said it best when he said “sometimes a market needs to break before it can rally”. If this is how it plays out then the second attempt is a strong buy signal.

Value finally broke away from the 5 day balance yesterday and higher prices were accepted. The profile shape was decent and the POC and settlement were close to the high of the day. Buyers are in control.

Have a wonderful day,
peter