Market Profile Blog – Friday, July 31, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:08 AM on Friday, July 31st, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

A move can start with short covering and then gain momentum. That’s something to think about today as we’ve just balanced for two days on much firmer structure than we advanced on Tuesday.

Am noting that yesterday’s RTH low was a higher low and on both Wed and Thurs the POC migrated to the high end of the distribution. Both of these points support a more bullish thesis.

As for today we are currently gapping up about 2.50, outside of the prior day’s range and thus opening out of balance.

Overnight inventory is balanced to slightly net short.

Yesterday’s settlement was dead at the high of the day which is also VAL. This level at 2104.00 may be tested in early trade.

Overall, the market is currently about a little higher than halfway between the recent top to down move of 7/20 to 7/27. That move pulled in to a higher low right at the daily SPX 200 period moving average and has rallied from there. Chartists should also note that both the 20 and 50 period SMA’s have completely flattened out now and are very close to each other. My bias is neutral to bullish.

Have a great day,
peter

Market Profile Blog – Thursday, July 30, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:07 AM on Thursday, July 30th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

One of the first questions one should ask oneself at the start of a trading day is whether we are opening up in balance or out of balance. In balance means within the prior day’s range and also the prior day’s value area. Currently, overnight futures are trading squarely in the fatter part of the value area and thus firmly in balance. As such we assume opportunities to be smaller and more of the responsive (pinball machine) variety, rather than the initiative (directional) type. Both can make you money, the trick is to know which type is probably going to be happening and not be falsely thinking it’s the other. That right there is probably what kills most futures traders. “I thought it was a breakout, but it went a little bit and then failed and now I’m underwater”….”I thought it would definitely bounce at ____________ and it just broke straight through”. Sound familiar? Context is everything and much of that context also includes tempo and tone. Feel those out and spend a lot of time getting to know them intimately. Read More…

Market Profile Blog – Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:04 AM on Wednesday, July 29th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday’s 25+ point rally was on extremely poor structure. As you can see above, there are five distributions separated by single prints. While we generally assume that all tops and bottoms of spikes can be turning points, when I see so many of them, I think it gives less weight to the spikes. Many of the distributions are so small that it would not make sense to watch to see if price is contained inside one of them because it probably will not.

Overnight inventory is pretty balanced and futures are trading very flat, right around yesterday’s settlement currently. I am noting how the ONL is just one tick below the widest part of yesterday’s distribution. See how everything below that level is more narrow? This makes me believe that the ONL will not hold if tested again.

I don’t see too much on the SPX cash chart to discern direction at this point, just a short covering rally against a number of days down.

Today at 2:15pm we have an FOMC announcement on rates. It’s widely believed that no action will be taken today, however something will happen at the next one in September. Use caution trading after about 11:30 am EST when markets tend to go into a holding pattern ahead of the announcement.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Market Profile Blog – Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:19 AM on Tuesday, July 28th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

Still very under the weather. As such am not writing commentary this morning, just posting the profile graphic as a courtesy to my readers…..

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Back to bed………
-peter

Market Profile Blog – Monday, July 27, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:58 AM on Monday, July 27th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

In yesterday’s video, I noted that SPX cash came down to a perfect 61.8% retracement on Friday’s close. That, coupled with relative strength in the Nasdaq had me mentioning that there could be a chance for a rally early today. The gap down of about 12 points at this juncture puts that scenario into question.

Let’s take a gander at the profile……… Read More…

Market Profile Blog – Friday, July 24, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:42 AM on Friday, July 24th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

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Click to enlarge

Market Profile Blog – Thursday, July 23, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:53 AM on Thursday, July 23rd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

150723

Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Blog – Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:46 AM on Wednesday, July 22nd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

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Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Blog – Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:01 AM on Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

150721

Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Blog – Monday, July 20, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:51 AM on Monday, July 20th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

150720

Click to Enlarge