Market Profile Blog – Wednesday, July 29, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:04 AM on Wednesday, July 29th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday’s 25+ point rally was on extremely poor structure. As you can see above, there are five distributions separated by single prints. While we generally assume that all tops and bottoms of spikes can be turning points, when I see so many of them, I think it gives less weight to the spikes. Many of the distributions are so small that it would not make sense to watch to see if price is contained inside one of them because it probably will not.

Overnight inventory is pretty balanced and futures are trading very flat, right around yesterday’s settlement currently. I am noting how the ONL is just one tick below the widest part of yesterday’s distribution. See how everything below that level is more narrow? This makes me believe that the ONL will not hold if tested again.

I don’t see too much on the SPX cash chart to discern direction at this point, just a short covering rally against a number of days down.

Today at 2:15pm we have an FOMC announcement on rates. It’s widely believed that no action will be taken today, however something will happen at the next one in September. Use caution trading after about 11:30 am EST when markets tend to go into a holding pattern ahead of the announcement.

Have a wonderful day,
peter

Market Profile Blog – Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:19 AM on Tuesday, July 28th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

Still very under the weather. As such am not writing commentary this morning, just posting the profile graphic as a courtesy to my readers…..

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Back to bed………
-peter

Market Profile Blog – Monday, July 27, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:58 AM on Monday, July 27th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

In yesterday’s video, I noted that SPX cash came down to a perfect 61.8% retracement on Friday’s close. That, coupled with relative strength in the Nasdaq had me mentioning that there could be a chance for a rally early today. The gap down of about 12 points at this juncture puts that scenario into question.

Let’s take a gander at the profile……… Read More…

Market Profile Blog – Friday, July 24, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:42 AM on Friday, July 24th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

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Click to enlarge

Market Profile Blog – Thursday, July 23, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:53 AM on Thursday, July 23rd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

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Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Blog – Wednesday, July 22, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:46 AM on Wednesday, July 22nd, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

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Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Blog – Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:01 AM on Tuesday, July 21st, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

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Click to enlarge.

Market Profile Blog – Monday, July 20, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 8:51 AM on Monday, July 20th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

**I am on vacation this week and will not be writing commentary for the blog. Brad is posting a premarket picture of the profile as a courtesy daily for me below:

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Click to Enlarge

Market Profile Blog – Friday, July 17, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:05 AM on Friday, July 17th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

I attempted a short against the trendline late yesterday which was stopped out overnight. After multiple tests both RTH and overnight at highs of around 18.50 on the /ES, I felt it made sense to give it a tight stop of two ticks over that at 19.00. That was taken out recently this morning.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday’s POC was pretty prominent and note that overnight action didn’t even touch it. It wasn’t even very far away, so I believe that’s saying something about the strength out there. Remember that “strength” can just be people still short which doesn’t negate the bullishness.

As shown above, yesterday’s low was poor and there is another gap again below us. I was targeting to the gap fill with my failed short. If the sellers get in gear at all today, you should target the same. That level is 2107.75. If that’s your game, put your limit orders 1-2 ticks above that level. If yesterday’s poor low is repaired, I would think that would be the obvious next area to go to.

Overnight inventory is balanced and the gap is very minimal to the upside, so that doesn’t give many clues as to early action. As of now we would still be opening within yesterday’s range. That being said, a valid play today might be to short a market that moves out of yesterday’s RTH range and then moves back in to it. Stop would be above today’s high of the day with target described above.

If the market has no liquidation early, then the trade could still be long once again. Even though we are up so far for so long without pause, any bullish action from this point would be breaking trend to the upside.

Have a great day,
peter

Market Profile Blog – Thursday, July 16, 2015

Posted by preznicek at 9:24 AM on Thursday, July 16th, 2015

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU5 and /NQU5 are posted free every morning HERE.

Yet another double digit gap up in the futures this morning, coming on the heels of some strong advances already. Technicals have us close to a resistance point that is about 5-6 handles away.

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click to enlarge

On to the profiles………. Read More…