Thursday, September 18, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:57 AM on Thursday, September 18th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday’s move found acceptance in the upper of the two previous day’s distributions. That is bullish in the short term.

Overnight inventory is about 97% net long with a relatively prominent POC at 1993.75.

Value was higher yesterday but in an overlapping fashion. In the same way that we saw value only overlapping to down when the market was correcting a bit recently we’ll carry this forward on the way up as well if that is the case after a few days.

While the Dow went to new all time highs yesterday and the SPX came very close, I am noting that the Nasdaq Composite has not even broken the downtrend line from the recent move down. Below is a picture.

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click to enlarge

While we’ve seen the markets leave the Russell behind for some time now and still rally, I think the Nasdaq Composite holds a little more weight than what the small caps are doing. I’m going to be watching this index closely over the next few days. Watching where resistance lines are in all markets is important even if it’s not the market you normally trade. Note how the high in the Nasdaq was right to the trendline and all markets sold off from there late in the day. That in and of itself could be a “tell” as the FOMC euphoria couldn’t get the Nasdaq to break trend.

I remain cautiously bullish and will turn up the cautiously part as we get closer to the October 29th meeting which will officially end QE3. The market has corrected sharply the last two times these programs ended. I would expect a bit of the same this time. The best case scenario (translation: most easily tradeable event) would be if the market had a blowoff top at some point between now and then.

Have a great day,
peter

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:20 AM on Wednesday, September 17th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

As discussed in yesterday’s post there was good chance of a short covering rally and we got it yesterday in a very big way. Yesterday’s tall profile was rather stretchy and separated into two distributions. This is indicative of shorter term players covering shorts and playing momentum in an “I gotta have it NOW” type of manner. The larger players would sit on the bid and let prices come in a bit and buy. Be that as it may it doesn’t take away any of the weight of the reversal unless we were to see price action today find acceptance in the lower of the two distributions. It’s more of a piece of information to carry forward if and when price comes back down through yesterday’s range. A double distribution is not as solid of a structure as a single distribution. Read More…

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:13 AM on Tuesday, September 16th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

A lower low yesterday with a very small balanced profile. When the range and value area is small don’t expect ranges to hold. That would be the time when responsive trade is NOT the way to go. A good trade today would possibly be a test of an extreme and then a break for a directional move. Read More…

Monday, September 15, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:00 AM on Monday, September 15th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

My comments on the profile in my Sunday videos are usually pretty comprehensive, thus I like to repost the video in the blog on Monday mornings. The market profile part starts at 01:35. Read More…

Friday, September 12, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:13 AM on Friday, September 12th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday was the first day of trading of the new Z4 contract. You’ll note the profile above is using /ESZ4. Read More…

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:48 AM on Thursday, September 11th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Futures off 7 as of this writing after an interesting day yesterday that was a second move below support and another close inside of range. Read More…

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:56 AM on Wednesday, September 10th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Yesterday’s RTH action breached the 1988 lows of the trading range by a few handles only to close back up inside of range. Overnight action has not taken this low at 1983.25. Overnight inventory is 100% net short so there could be a situation where sellers are going to attempt to take out yesterday’s RTH low and fail causing another snapback into range. Coming into the session, I am noting this fact that the overnight low is above yesterday’s RTH low. This reminds us that we must approach everything in stages. Can the ONL be taken out? Can yesterday’s low be taken out? Can all of this happen without balancing overnight inventory? Will overnight inventory balance first and then we find acceptance lower? Read More…

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:13 AM on Tuesday, September 9th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

Click to Enlarge

Click to Enlarge

Balance leads to excess and vice versa. That’s mostly what I’m trying to keep in mind as this sideways range keeps growing out to the right. The market has not made a significant move for about 10 sessions now. Read More…

Monday, September 8, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 9:02 AM on Monday, September 8th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

My comments on the profile coming into today were very comprehensive in yesterday’s video. Rather than rehash all that, I’m posting the video below if you missed it. The profile stuff is somewhere in the middle, you can easily fast forward if that’s all you want…. Read More…

Friday, September 5, 2014

Posted by preznicek at 8:50 AM on Friday, September 5th, 2014

Good Morning

Value areas and POC figures for /ESU4 and /NQU4 are posted free every morning HERE.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

–Value overlapping to higher for second day in a row with another poor high in yesterday’s distribution. Read More…