The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
| 3912.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
|---|---|
| 3899.50 | Settlement |
| 3881.50 | VALValue Area Low / Top of Single PrintsAny section of the market profile distribution that is only one TPO wide. Single prints are a sign of emotional buying or selling as very little time was spent at those levels and thus there is no value there. The endpoints of single print sections are considered to be potential support or resistance points. |
Small gap lower into the middle of yesterday’s range. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is net shortThe concept of being more short than long in an options spread by creating options spreads where you are selling more structures than you are buying or selling wider structures than the ones you are buying. Example would be a broken wing butterfly. This spread is made up of two structures, one long vertical and one short vertical. In the BWB, the short vertical is wider than the long vertical. When you are long this spread, you are said to be in an options position that is "net short"
but not 100% so. As of now we are trading in the middle third of the overnight range. All that leads to potential trades developing later rather than earlier as there is little shock and aweA term Peter uses to describe what overnight futures traders may be feeling when faced with an open that is wildly divergent from what they expected. Large gaps in either direction that are opening well outside of range are examples of this. The approach is that when the market opens in such a manner, there is often opportunity to trade earlier rather than later because of the large contingent of traders who will be forced to reverse their positions quickly..
Value was clearly higher yesterday and the HODHigh of Day went close to the HODHigh of Day of 2/25 which is noteworthy as prices were able to claw back almost all of that day’s range. Prices did move above the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. open of that session which is noteworthy.
All of this puts the /ES close to an upside breakout point once again on its daily chart.
The technical implication of the chart above is obvious. Cross the light blue line and we are back in an uptrend; stay below it and we are not.
As with every expansion of range, odds increase of balance the next day. Keep that in mind for today’s intraday trade.
Scenarios
- There is potential for balance today against the backdrop of the expanded range of yesterday. If so, internalsInternals refers to “market internals” and is a blanket term to collectively describe the advance decline, breadth, tick and cumulative tick. will be more mixed and there will be some push-pull between sectors in the SPX.
- Only acceptanceWhen the market profile begins to build out or develop in a certain area, it is said that the market is accepting those prices. This can be measured either in time spent or amount of volume that is transacted. It is generally understood that ShadowTrader defines acceptance as more of a time dynamic than a volume one. A good rule of thumb is to look for at least two TPO periods to print in the accepted area. The acceptance confirms that a significant amount of market participants are transacting at those levels. Acceptance is the opposite of rejection. below the Top of the single printsAny section of the market profile distribution that is only one TPO wide. Single prints are a sign of emotional buying or selling as very little time was spent at those levels and thus there is no value there. The endpoints of single print sections are considered to be potential support or resistance points. can change the tone. Watch that area closely today. A more bullish market will not test those levels. If so, ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. and RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low could be in play.
- If the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High is breached, switch your focus to the daily chart immediately to note where the trendline resistance (picture above) is going to come into play.
ShadowTrader Cumulative Tick
Beef up your "quad" and by putting your tickThe net cumulative tick reading on the NYSE or Nasdaq Composite. This is measured by the number of stocks ticking up minus the number of stocks ticking down at any given moment. It is the least used of the internal indicators but is discussed from time to time. Generally the tick readings are only helpful when they are at extremes such as +1000 on the NYSE to indicate that program trading is ensuing. indicator on steroids!
Learn More
