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| 3524.50 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. (8.30) / Futures ATHAll Time High |
|---|---|
| 3516.25 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
| 3513.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
| 3490.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low (Poor) |
| 3484.25 | ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
The list of VPOC’s and unfilled gaps below us from the March lows.
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 17 (8.25) – 3430.50
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 16 (8/24) Prominent – 3416.50
Top of Gap 3 – 3409.50
Bottom of Gap 3 – 3396.25
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 15(8.21) – 3385.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 14 (8.6) – 3315.75
Top of Gap 2 – 3310.50
Bottom of Gap 2 – 3300.50
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 13 (8.4) – 3292.25
Top of Gap 1 – 3276.50
Bottom of Gap 1 – 3267.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 12 (7.31) – 3227.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 11 (7.14) – 3163.25
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 10 (7.1) – 3104.25
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 9 (6.30) – 3064.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 8 (6.29) – 3028.75
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 7 (5.22) – 2935.75
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 6 (5.18) – 2843.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 5 (4.22) – 2730.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 4 (4.7) – 2620.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 3 (3.30) – 2531.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 2 (3.26) – 2478.00
VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 1 (3.24) – 2231.00
I thought the bananas were appropriate for this issue’s image because that’s pretty much how the market is acting lately, bananas. Yesterday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session was very wild and made very little sense from a a technical perspective. The divergence was huge with NDX tacking on almost a full percentage point at the close while SPX lost almost a quarter point.
To a degree, the wild divergence continues today with the /NQ’s up over 4x what the /ES is currently trading.
Liquidation breaks and sharp short covering rallies seem to be the M.O. lately so comport yourselves accordingly. Responsive tradeA responsive trade is a counter-trend trade taken against a specific level. The theory is that when two sided trade is taking place, there will not be enough momentum to push past key levels and buyers or sellers will respond to those areas, essentially pushing prices away from them. This is the opposite of breakout or initiative trade which is more directional in nature and is generally taken in the direction of the prevailing trend. may be bigger than you will imagine. Use that to your benefit.
This overnight session has us trading on a small gap higher but not a true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later.. Gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... are not in play and the easier (read: higher odds) trade will probably develop later rather than earlier in today’s session. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is balanced to slightly net long. Interestingly enough, there is overnight activity above both extremes of the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session. That only points to massive indecision to me and confirms further that the market will need some time today to show its hand.
I continue to carry forward the overnight high from 8.30 which is still the high of this move. As far as RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. sessions are concerned, there was some proper excess to yesterday’s auction. I carry that forward as well.
Yesterday’s low was poor and is in need of repairA market profile term for "fixing" profile distributions that are missing parts that would make them complete or more symmetrical. This concept is most often applied to poor highs and poor lows which are profile distributions that lack excess on their endpoints and have two or more TPO's across creating tops or bottoms that look flat. Once a new session trades through these levels then it is as though the current activity was "pasted onto" the prior activity to complete the picture. It should be noted that repair can only occur in an RTH session. Overnight activity that trades through areas of poor RTH structure does not repair that structure. .
While everyone’s focus is on what the Nasdaq 100 is doing, don’t be distracted from the fact that the SPX is clearly struggling. Structures have not supported the advance and value isn’t really moving. Too many people getting long and not getting paid for it can only end in one way.
Scenarios
- The very large overnight range that engulfs the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range and is currently trading within balance gives little clue as to how futures will react in early trade. The better trade should develop earlier rather than later. Recently, I’ve discussed ruling reasonA term that may or may not have been coined by James Dalton, our mentor in market profile. It means the current ethos, zeitgeist, feel, tone, essentially "what is happening at this moment". It is that thing that is currently driving the market which can often fly in the face of all analysis and common sense. Can be something as simple as "the market wants to tag this particular psychological level", or more nuanced like underlying Fed policy or heightened sensitivity to news events.. The current ruling reasonA term that may or may not have been coined by James Dalton, our mentor in market profile. It means the current ethos, zeitgeist, feel, tone, essentially "what is happening at this moment". It is that thing that is currently driving the market which can often fly in the face of all analysis and common sense. Can be something as simple as "the market wants to tag this particular psychological level", or more nuanced like underlying Fed policy or heightened sensitivity to news events. is that Nasdaq stocks are in a bubble and are pulling everything along with it. That, and the fact that the /ES is going along very stubbornly are both huge pieces of M.G.I.Market Generated Information. to keep in mind as you navigate the session.
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