The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
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| 3751.25 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
|---|---|
| 3737.25 | VAHValue Area High |
| 3727.75 | HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. |
| 3701.00 | Settlement |
| 3685.50 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
Strong gap higher back into Friday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range after making a new swing low overnight. As of now we are slated to open well within balance on overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... that is also very balanced. Current prices are in the upper third of the overnight range.
All of the above tells us very little about how the day session will play out. Friday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range was extended and the overnight range is large as well. The better trades will develop later rather than earlier today.
Key Levels are all references from the overnight range and also from the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range. Use them as signposts should any weakness develop. Value unchanged to lower today maintains the status quo which is weakness while any value developing higher runs counter to that view. While not listed above, any activity below the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low should assume that the ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. is in play.
Keep in mind as you approach today’s session that markets move from balance to excess and back to balance again…
**The market profileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. graphic may be slightly compressed and lack sharpness. I am working remotely this morning and as such do not have direct access to a better image.**
Scenarios
- Balanced overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... against a backdrop of an extended range gives little information as to how the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session will play out. The higher odds setups should develop later rathe than earlier today.
- Trade from the framework that any activity above the ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. has potential to attract further short covering while acceptanceWhen the market profile begins to build out or develop in a certain area, it is said that the market is accepting those prices. This can be measured either in time spent or amount of volume that is transacted. It is generally understood that ShadowTrader defines acceptance as more of a time dynamic than a volume one. A good rule of thumb is to look for at least two TPO periods to print in the accepted area. The acceptance confirms that a significant amount of market participants are transacting at those levels. Acceptance is the opposite of rejection. within the value areaA range where approximately 70% of the prior days volume traded. The range is derived from one standard deviation on either side of the mean which is roughly 70%. See: Market Profile keeps sellers in control.
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