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| 3912.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High 3.1 |
|---|---|
| 3865.50 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
| 3858.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low 3.1 |
| 3840.00 | VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 2.26 |
Small gap lower, mostly on economic data that just dropped at 8:30am EST as futures were higher for most of the overnight session. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is net long but not 100% so. As of now we are slated to open just outside of range and are trading close to the ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day..
The range of 3.1 represents a two day balance high and low. Yesterday was an inside dayA day in which the entire range of price action from lows to highs is within or inside the prior day’s range. This pattern in candlestick terms is called “harami” and is a sign of a small pause in the prevailing trend before continuing onward rather than reversing. with value relatively unchanged. The extremes of the March 1st session are the breakout levels for any potential larger move. Should the move be lower, I’ve marked off the VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. from the 2.26 RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session as a potential target.
My overall feel on the market here is that sellers are present but are simply not getting any real traction for their efforts. Yesterday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low was a higher low and the overnight session is only moving out of the two day range on recent economic data which could be knee-jerk in nature. As always, continue to pay attention to developing value. Posting unchanged value today continues to keep the bullish thesis afloat while lower value puts it into question.
Scenarios
- Should we open outside of range, gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... are in play. Watch both the 3.1 and the 3.2 RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Lows as potential entries for rotation back up into range. Do we stay above or below these lows? Rallies to and rejections away from them are shorts as well.
- On any stronger continuation move lower, look for failure to gap fill and/or aforementioned rejectionPrices are rejected when they move away from a key area quickly in the market profile. For example, let's say that futures open below the value area and start to rise towards it. Upon breaching the low of the value area, they rise just a couple ticks higher and then fall quickly back out of the value area. That's rejection. Rejection is often noted when prices move into "make or break" areas such as an ONH or ONL or prior day's RTH high or low from outside of those areas.
Rejection is the opposite of acceptance. of the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Lows. Monitor for continuation and target the 2.26 VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session.. - Long trades could potentially set up only if acceptanceWhen the market profile begins to build out or develop in a certain area, it is said that the market is accepting those prices. This can be measured either in time spent or amount of volume that is transacted. It is generally understood that ShadowTrader defines acceptance as more of a time dynamic than a volume one. A good rule of thumb is to look for at least two TPO periods to print in the accepted area. The acceptance confirms that a significant amount of market participants are transacting at those levels. Acceptance is the opposite of rejection. is found back above the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low. Keep in mind that such longs are against the backdrop of the two day range and yesterday’s value which would be more resistant.
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